Trump's opening gambit: Between the unprecedented arrest of a foreign leader on their own soil and threats directed at a NATO ally, the international stage entered 2026 in upheaval. The sheer volume of 'unprecedented' events makes prediction almost impossible.
Markets unmoved: Despite the political turbulence, equities entered the year on a bullish wave — the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high. Trump wants the DOW 30 at 50,000; with 500 points to go, expect that milestone shortly. Tesla trades at a PE of 302.
NVDA divergence: NVIDIA has been unable to make new highs despite the broader rally — a divergence worth watching closely. If the market's AI darling cannot advance, the narrative is running on borrowed time.
Japan signal: JGB 10Y moved to 2.09%. Markets are slowly adjusting to above-2% yields. A General Election announcement in February is expected — policy continuity uncertain.
Starmer has officially committed the UK to the long-term defence of Ukraine, yet the underlying strategy remains elusive. Curiously, markets are unmoved — the pound remains stable and the FTSE 100 continues hitting all-time highs, effectively decoupling from what many view as a domestic political shambles.
FTSE 100 up 22% since January 2025 — markets repricing UK equities. UK Gilts at 4.37%: a solid budget is giving the Treasury fiscal headroom that bond markets have noticed.
The S&P 500 entered 2026 on a bullish wave, printing a new all-time high in the opening week. Consensus remains: we are in multiple simultaneous bubbles — equities, crypto, AI infrastructure. Silver is the latest speculative fad to attract retail flows.
NVDA's stall is the key signal to monitor. A market leader that cannot make new highs while everything else does is historically a warning. Watch for follow-through sellers if the AI capex narrative softens.
Next week will likely signal the year's overall direction. The first full week of earnings season begins.
| Gold | 4,566 | New highs; Chinese buying cited as USD alternative |
| Copper | 13,150 | +19.5% since Dec 1; high correlation to equities |
| Oil WTI | Bullish | Broke above 50 DMA — watching for confirmation |
| Carbon | 89.50 | Long-term upward trend; strong support at 20 DMA |
| UST 10Y | 4.16% | 2Y: 3.53% — Trump pulling all levers for midterms |
| UK Gilts | 4.37% | Solid budget, fiscal headroom — markets noticed |
| Bund 10Y | 2.82% | Coalition uncertain; spending appears supported |
| JGB 10Y | 2.09% | Markets adjusting to +2%; GE announcement imminent |
First week of the year — geopolitically wild, markets in the round remain bullish. NVDA's inability to make new highs is the single most important technical signal to monitor. Watch next week for directional clues. Safe-haven government bonds recommended as a core defensive allocation.