Davos becomes 'Global Trump' week: The sheer number of destabilising initiatives overwhelmed the conference's coherence. The Greenland controversy flared and fizzled — Bill Maher compared it to 'a dog eating its own sick.' The American team's insulting tone toward European leaders set a grim mood for 2026 multilateralism.
Canada's Carney emerged with reputation enhanced. His dramatic Davos speech forced a genuine debate and grabbed the initiative — framing Canada's position with a clarity that European leaders conspicuously lacked.
Supreme Court signal: Deliberations on Trump's executive power are pointing toward a ruling that his tariff and Fed-firing powers exceed his authority. Betting markets: 70% probability Trump's actions ruled illegal. Medium-term implication: power draining, lame-duck presidency increasingly likely for the remainder of his term.
TACO confirmed: The market erased Tuesday's 2.1% sell-off by Friday, driven by Trump walking back the February 1st tariff deadline. The 'Trump Always Chickens Out' trade is fully embedded in market psychology.
PMQs was excruciating — a new low for Labour. Andy Burnham was blocked from standing in a Manchester by-election by Labour's NEC, marking the opening round of Starmer's defenestration. Going forward, the Prime Minister will likely have no political standing as the succession fight begins.
Labour suspended 28 local elections in May — Reform UK launched a judicial review. The government appears willing to govern undemocratically while it retains its majority.
Financial markets under a future left-wing leader can be expected to become nervous and volatile — the current stability is Starmer and Reeves's accidental guardrail, not a structural feature.
The 2.1% S&P sell-off on Tuesday — worst since October — was a direct reaction to Trump's tariff threats against eight NATO allies. The full recovery by Friday illustrates the TACO dynamic operating in real time.
Gold hitting $4,930 all-time highs signals that while equity traders buy the dip, smart money is still hedging heavily against policy volatility. The divergence between equity and gold behaviour is the market's honest assessment of risk.
Intel crashed 12-20% on the 18A process node miss. Despite hype around Diamond Rapids, CEO Tan admitted below-expectation yields — a cold bath for investors who priced Intel as an AI winner.
ChatGPT market share fell from 87% to 68% over the past year. Google Gemini at 18%. Distribution is the moat, not the model — and Google owns distribution.
| Gold | 5,023 | New highs; momentum pulling in buyers |
| Copper | ~13,000 | Consolidated; MACD sell signal |
| Oil WTI | ~62 | Rebounding, testing resistance |
| Carbon | ~88 | Massive selloff 92.50 → 84; consolidating |
| UST 10Y | 4.23% | 2Y: 3.59% — Trump chaos; everyone guessing |
| UK Gilts | 4.52% | 10bp higher — reaction to future leadership change? |
| Bund 10Y | 2.88% | EU spending up; French budget ugly but passing |
| JGB 10Y | 2.26% | Illiquid; wild post-election moves; intervention likely |
Third week of the year — geopolitically the wildest so far. Markets in the round remain bullish but fragile. Watch the Fed meeting and ChatGPT solvency as potential sentiment catalysts. Safe-haven government bonds recommended. Gold as a systemic hedge — the all-time high is a signal, not a top.