Fed chair transition: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell — historically a hawk, framed as a 'regime change' in monetary policy. FX reacted first (USD higher), then precious metals and crypto collapsed. The Fed held rates steady, signalling a desire to decouple from the AI equity bubble.
Iran escalation: US deployed a battle fleet to the region. Internal Iranian unrest reported with significant fatalities. Administration eyeing 'regime change at the top' modelled on the Venezuela strategy — though Iran presents a far steeper challenge.
Ukraine truce signal: Trump announced a one-week pause in city bombardments citing extreme winter temperatures. Not formalised in writing — Moscow most likely buying time for a tactical battlefield reset.
Starmer's China trip: first UK leader to visit in eight years. Framed as 'pragmatic partnership' focused on growth — economic diversification as a hedge against transatlantic unpredictability. Sterling reflecting a rare moment of 'UK exceptionalism' as the currency held firm against a hawkish Fed announcement.
Goldman Sachs upgraded UK 2026 growth to 1.4% — argument: UK less penalised by debt interest than its neighbours, providing more fiscal space for infrastructure investment without spooking bond markets.
Gorton and Denton by-election (Feb 26) is the year's first major political litmus test. Reform UK standing Matt Goodwin — academic star power with local family ties. The Green Party targeting Labour's base on Gaza.
Earnings season laid bare the K-shaped reality: upper-echelon tech scales while P&G and McCormick reveal a stagnant consumer sector struggling under price-weary shoppers.
Gold -16%, Silver -40% by Friday's close in a capitulation event. Likely trigger: the Warsh Fed chair appointment circulating in central banking circles before hitting the mainstream. Expect a technical dead-cat bounce before further support testing.
The 'circular AI economy' concern grows louder: AI companies are largely selling to each other. If one major player shows a significant revenue crack, systemic repricing becomes a real near-term risk.
Microsoft lagged as investors questioned the scale of AI capex. Intel rebounded on rumours Apple and NVIDIA may use its 18A foundry for up to 25% of their manufacturing by 2028.
| Gold | Crashed | -16% capitulation; dead-cat bounce likely before next support test |
| Copper | ~13,000 | Followed metals down; MACD sell signal |
| Oil WTI | 66.50 | Spike on Iran geopolitics |
| Carbon | ~81 | Massive selloff from 92.50; likely to continue lower |
| UST 10Y | 4.24% | 2Y: 3.52% — Fed held; Warsh appointment surprise absorbed |
| UK Gilts | 4.52% | China trip, by-election, Goldman upgrade all in one week |
| Bund 10Y | 2.84% | EU spending; French debt headache persists |
| JGB 10Y | 2.25% | Coordinated intervention with US announced |
Fourth week — less wild overall, but the Gold/Silver capitulation is a major market event. Emerging markets may be the safe haven as EM currencies benefit from dollar reversal. Government bonds: direction remains lower yields — buy on any yield spike. Iran strike and Ukraine ceasefire remain live binary events capable of moving markets sharply.