Trump's Iran focus: The 'everything, everywhere, all at once' presidency continues at unrelenting pace. Administration's focus shifted toward Iran — governed by religious leadership with 'end-of-days' convictions. A far steeper challenge than Venezuela.
Ukraine-Russia talks persist — a positive signal in theory — but no concrete evidence of progress on the ground.
The Epstein news dump reads as tactical misdirection given the scale of geopolitical issues in play.
'Mandy' — once a kingmaker, now a PM-killer. Following PMQs it is increasingly clear that Keir Starmer is a political dead man walking. The Labour Party is all at sea; front pages are thick with succession gossip.
The end could come as soon as February 27th, once the Gorton and Denton by-election results are in. If he survives that, he may only cling on until the May local elections.
Markets will turn nervous and volatile with the advent of Burnham or any other left-wing successor. The stability provided by Starmer and Reeves is not transferable to the Labour left.
Is SaaS dead? No. AI is far from foolproof and major software companies remain highly relevant. The 'death of SaaS' is a narrative used to justify recent sector sell-offs rather than a structural reality.
We are in an 'everything bubble': volatility in one sector triggers a domino effect across others. Critically, markets have begun interpreting good news as a negative catalyst — a historically concerning sign.
Friday's broad rally reversed the week's losses. Next week is the true test of whether this rebound has legs or is a dead-cat bounce before a more sustained correction.
| Gold | Bouncing | Off 50 DMA; consolidating after capitulation |
| Copper | ~13,000 | Consolidated; MACD sell signal |
| Oil WTI | ~63 | Remains at 63 handle on Iran concerns |
| Carbon | ~76 | Selloff to 76; small rebound; more downside expected |
| UST 10Y | 4.20% | 2Y: 3.50% — Trump chaos; everyone guessing direction |
| UK Gilts | 4.51% | Labour leadership battle weighing on market confidence |
| Bund 10Y | 2.84% | EU spending; French debt still a major headache |
| JGB 10Y | 2.22% | LDP supermajority — how does the market react? |
On a technical basis, markets should rebound 50% of recent losses then sell off again. Expect S&P 500, Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin to rally in the near term. However the macro backdrop is deteriorating. Emerging markets or global infrastructure funds recommended as a defensive core position for the weeks ahead.