US Macro — The Ghost of 2025: The 2025 employment benchmark revision — slashing 584,000 jobs by over 400,000 — suggests the Fed was flying blind for much of last year. CPI is now falling faster than the 'higher for longer' narrative accounted for. A classic 'bull steepening' in Treasuries is underway. If next month's data confirms weakness, 'No Landing' gets replaced by 'Hard Landing' fears overnight.
Japan — Takaichi and the Sanaenomics risk: Her supermajority gives her the floor for aggressive fiscal spending. The Yen carry trade remains the global black swan: USDJPY 160 is the consensus hard floor. An uncontrolled unwind is one of the few events capable of causing an instantaneous global liquidity freeze.
Epstein Data Set 13: The DOJ's release of 3.5 million pages has shifted the conversation from conspiracy theory to evidentiary proceedings. Data Set 13 appears to contain the raw investigative memos connecting banks and law firms to specific criminal knowledge. International probes into Mandelson (UK) and Jagland (Norway) suggest the protective umbrella is finally fraying.
Ukraine drone war and EU autonomy: Ukraine's internal drone production has fundamentally changed the calculus of attritional warfare. Starmer's Munich speech on 'interdependence' marks a strategic pivot away from the US — but his lame-duck status and the EU's demand for a 10% defence budget entry fee for the SAFE programme suggests this may be isolation rather than realignment.
Starmer is dismantling his 'toxic boys' club' under pressure. Rapid-fire departures of Chief of Staff, Cabinet Secretary, and Head of Communications have left a vacuum at Number 10. Labour granted him a temporary stay of execution — internal opponents not yet ready to strike.
The financial media has coalesced on one theme: a government in office but no longer in power. If he survives the year, an economic rebound may rescue him — but it is a narrow window.
Retail investors aggressively buying the dip. But the AI Scare Trade is migrating from software into insurance, logistics, and legal services — a broader disruption narrative that is harder to dismiss as sector noise.
Why it matters right now: A weakening fiscal position means the US government borrows more at a time when the dollar is weakening and the economy is slowing. Investors worry the Fed may be forced to keep rates higher to attract buyers for new Treasury issuance — even as the economy deteriorates. This is the fiscal dominance trap.
| Gold | 5,056 | Hit 5,600 resistance, crashed, now grinding higher |
| Copper | 12,935 | MACD consistent sell signal |
| Oil WTI | 63-65 | Volatile range; Trump/Iran concerns |
| Carbon | ~75 | Selloff continues; expect further downside |
| UST 10Y | 4.04% | 2Y: 3.40% — employment revision + CPI lower moved expectations |
| UK Gilts | 4.42% | International forces more influential than domestic politics |
| Bund 10Y | 2.76% | EU spending; Munich provided rhetoric not hard commitments |
| JGB 10Y | 2.21% | Takaichi's consolidation of power — key policy test ahead |
US weakness and dire fiscal position cannot be ignored. The Administration will do whatever it takes to win midterms, but Epstein may derail everything. S&P 500 needs something special to break 7,000 resistance. Go for strategic positioning: Cornish Metals (Trump special metals fund thesis); long-dated government bonds; EM high-yield sovereigns; hide in infrastructure funds.