Supreme Court tariff ruling (Feb 20): The Court struck down Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs 6-3, ruling they exceeded presidential authority under the 1977 IEEPA. Trump immediately countered with a new 10% duty under a different authority. A significant judicial check — but not the end of the tariff era.
New Economic Nationalism — official: The WEF at Davos 2026 officially declared that 'New Economic Nationalism' is replacing laissez-faire globalisation. Governments are now prioritising 'technological sovereignty' and supply chain resilience over efficiency.
Maritime security transformation: The US Navy's role as 'global public good' securing trade routes is effectively over. US and G7 allies are now targeting the shadow fleets of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. India intercepted three Iran-linked tankers near Mumbai — a major signal of alignment toward the Western orbit in exchange for reduced US tariffs.
Iran nuclear standoff: Despite a 10-day ultimatum and a US military buildup in the Persian Gulf, oil markets remain surprisingly calm — implying investors believe either a Geneva deal will be reached or that current supply chains have already priced in the regional volatility.
Record January budget surplus — the largest since records began in 1993, driven by a surge in CGT receipts (£17bn) and self-assessment income. Chancellor Reeves now has significant fiscal headroom ahead of the spring budget statement.
CPI fell to 3.0% in January — the first time in 10 months within the Bank of England's target range. Renewed calls for a March interest rate cut.
Prince Andrew's arrest — the first of a senior Royal in nearly 400 years — caused a seismic shock to the establishment. Downing Street's Director of Communications Tim Allan resigned in the fallout.
Gorton and Denton by-election this Thursday is much anticipated. A Reform win sends a clear message of voter exasperation with Labour — and will likely accelerate the succession timeline.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the week slightly higher, but the action was defensive and lacking conviction. Domestic-heavy small caps — the Russell 2000 — are beginning to show strain from the high cost of doing business under the new economic nationalism.
Prediction markets are now leading indicators: daily volumes surpassed $6 billion. These platforms correctly priced a 75% probability of the Supreme Court tariff ruling days before it happened, leaving institutional analysts playing catch-up.
Bitcoin's collapse may be 'the canary': investors sitting on massive AI profits are on the fence, beginning to consider taking profits. OpenAI's valuation thesis — $1 trillion sought, $360bn revenue target for 2030, but $600bn planned compute and infrastructure spend — does not add up.
| Gold | 5,135 | Hit 5,600 resistance, crashed, grinding back higher |
| Copper | 12,995 | Consolidated; MACD consistent sell signal |
| Oil WTI | 63-67 | Volatile range; Iran/Trump uncertainty |
| Carbon | 68.30 | Found support; small rebound |
| UST 10Y | 4.08% | 2Y: 3.48% — debate on US economy strength rages |
| UK Gilts | 4.35% | Record surplus + lower inflation: analysts rewriting forecasts |
| Bund 10Y | 2.73% | German renewal on the cards; tied to EU all at sea |
| JGB 10Y | 2.12% | Takaichi's power consolidation quieting market speculation |
Bitcoin's collapse is the canary. Investors with massive AI profits are on the fence — profit-taking contagion is the near-term risk. OpenAI's $360bn revenue target against $600bn compute spend is an existential business model question that the market has not yet priced. Infrastructure funds and long-duration government bonds remain the defensive core. UK gilts particularly attractive: record budget surplus, CPI back in target range, March rate cut likely.