G7 Sovereign Debt Analysis
The Gilt Book
Credit Risk · G7 Comparison
Data as of
June 2026
Countries
G7 · All Members

A sovereign credit comparison across the G7 — rating, spread, and fiscal sustainability in one view.

01 —— Sovereign Credit Ratings Moody's / S&P / Fitch · May 2026
Country Moody's S&P Fitch Outlook Last Change
Rating scale (highest → lowest): AAA · AA+ · AA · AA− · A+ · A · A− · BBB+ · BBB · BBB− · BB+ … Investment grade threshold: BBB−. All G7 sovereigns currently rated investment grade.
02 —— 10-Year Sovereign Credit Spreads vs. German Bund · basis points · May 2026

Reference: German Bund (0 bps). Spreads = additional yield investors demand vs Germany. Data as of March 2026. Note: Japan's 10Y yield is currently below the Bund, reflecting its domestic-investor base and yield curve control legacy — shown as negative spread.

Credit spreads reflect market pricing of sovereign risk and are influenced by fiscal position, political stability, central bank policy, and currency risk. UK Gilt spreads over Bunds have widened significantly since 2022 and now stand at ~162bps — above the US and France — reflecting persistent fiscal uncertainty, elevated debt servicing costs, and political risk premium under the current Labour government.
03 —— Debt-to-GDP Matrix IMF estimates · 2025 · % of GDP
Country Debt / GDP Primary Balance Interest / Revenue Debt Trend IMF Outlook Risk Score
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct 2025), Moody's, S&P, Fitch (March 2026), Trading Economics / Investors Chronicle (spreads, March 2026). Primary balance = fiscal balance excluding interest payments. Interest/Revenue = share of government revenue consumed by debt servicing. Risk Score is an indicative composite of debt level, trajectory, and servicing cost (1 = lowest risk, 5 = highest risk within G7).