G7 Sovereign Debt Analysis
The Gilt Book
Credit Risk · G7 Comparison
Data as of
September 2026
Countries
G7 · All Members

A sovereign credit comparison across the G7 — rating, spread, and fiscal sustainability in one view.

01 —— Sovereign Credit Ratings Moody's / S&P / Fitch · Sep 2026
Country Moody's S&P Fitch Outlook Last Change
Rating scale (highest → lowest): AAA · AA+ · AA · AA− · A+ · A · A− · BBB+ · BBB · BBB− · BB+ … Investment grade threshold: BBB−. All G7 sovereigns currently rated investment grade.
02 —— 10-Year Sovereign Credit Spreads vs. German Bund · basis points · Oct 2026

Reference: German Bund (0 bps). Spreads = additional yield investors demand vs Germany. Data as of late August 2026. Note: Japan's 10Y yield is currently below the Bund, reflecting its domestic-investor base and yield curve control legacy — shown as negative spread.

Credit spreads reflect market pricing of sovereign risk and are influenced by fiscal position, political stability, central bank policy, and currency risk. UK Gilt spreads over Bunds have widened significantly since 2022 and now stand at ~194bps — the widest in the G7, above the US, Italy and France — reflecting persistent fiscal uncertainty, elevated debt servicing costs, and a political risk premium.
03 —— Debt-to-GDP Matrix IMF WEO Oct 2026 · 2025 · % of GDP
Country Debt / GDP Primary Balance Net Interest / Revenue Debt Trend Outlook to 2031 Risk Score
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2026; 2025 figures, Japan's latest outturn 2024), Moody's, S&P, Fitch (September 2026), Trading Economics (spreads, late August 2026). Primary balance = general government balance excluding net interest. Net Interest/Revenue = net interest (primary minus overall balance) as a share of general government revenue; it is low for Japan and negative for Canada because both governments hold large interest-earning financial assets. Debt trend compares 2025 with the IMF's 2031 projection (Flat = within ±2 points of GDP); Outlook to 2031 is The Gilt Book's summary of that projection. Risk Score is an indicative composite of debt level, trajectory, and servicing cost (1 = lowest risk, 5 = highest risk within G7).